Conversation about the Current State of the Economy

Since this keeps coming up in conversations, I thought I'd just post this here as a reference so I don't have to keep typing the same things over and over...

Let me reiterate that I'm not saying that Republicans or Democrats are better here, that I am for or against Trump (although you can guess where I stand on that), or that this article has anything much to do primarily with political stances - Quite the opposite, it's more of a critique of the Capitalist system which both parties have supported, and continue to support/defend without question.

We have been consistently told that the economy is doing great and that all we have to do to understand this is to look at the unemployment numbers.  Yes, they are lower than they have been in something like 50 years, but there is a lot more to look at behind this one number and we should never take it at face value (even when it appears to be bad, it's probably worse, and still doesn't tell us all that much).

There is a pretty good article here which goes into just how complicated this one number is, and why it should be taken with a huge grain of salt.

Secondly, the main thing to remember here is that simply looking at the unemployment rate, seeing that it's low, then happily walking away is something akin to having your doctor take your temperature, seeing that it's 98.6, and giving you a clean bill of health (when you could possibly have stage 3 cancer).  There are a large number of other factors that go into judging the true health of an economy, and they all need to be looked at in order to get a more clear picture of how things really are.

Since I already typed up a detailed response to a Facebook post about this yesterday - but also because it's Saturday morning and I'm gonna pull the lazy card - I'm going to copy and paste that conversation here:

(My Response)

I do plenty of research, and I actually got sick of watching CNN a couple of years ago as, yeah, it's gotten to be mostly sensationalist garbage (as has Fox News and MSNBC, for that matter).

The graphs you're showing do look impressive, but there's a lot more to them than just a picture, and there's a hell of a lot that these graphs don't tell us (I don't think you read the Forbes article I posted above either, which is at least partially explaining why you can't pin all of the credit/blame for the *immediate* state of the economy on the sitting President, and is also partially saying that you can't give Trump full credit for what was already on course to happen anyway - Not that I'm saying Obama was 100% responsible either).

First of all, regarding GDP... yes, Q2 of 2018 had an unusual spike before they dropped down a bit in Q3 and Q4. This was about the time where the new Tax Cuts were coming into effect (though they also had something to do with the rise in 2017) - Again, mostly for the rich and corporations... Yes, some of us saw a little more money in our paychecks, but the deductibles were also changed beneath our noses, and that screwed a lot of people when they went to file taxes the next year (just as the CPA that I go to). Also, it would have be nice if OUR tax rate went down by 15%, yeah? So between this and the Republicans doing some short-term deficit spending, the GDP rose for a bit, but who really benefits from all of this? In the long run, the GDP is still *averaging* around 2.3% anyhow, year over year.

Regarding the stock market... this graph also looks impressive, sure. There's a lot to be said about this. For one, it's great that stocks are doing so well, but that really is only a benefit to about half of the US population and does nothing for the rest of the people. Secondly, of course you have to give credit for the boost in the stock market to the Trump tax breaks... it was fantastic for the corporations and the rich, and that is reflected here. However, with what sounds like good news, we should probably factor in a few other things:

- As it happens every 7 to 10 years lately under our Capitalist system, it's been widely speculated that we are overdue for another recession, and most economists agree on this as there are plenty of warning signs all around us (an inverted yield curve on bonds, the fed lowering interest rates, a housing market that has topped out, etc.). That being said, with every recession is a dramatic fall of the stock market. Mind you, Trump is doing everything in his power to try to hold that off until after the upcoming election (as it could be very bad for him), but it's probably just a matter of time.

- The tariff wars (and the looming of Brexit, for that matter) have been pretty bad for US businesses so far, and I can say this from personal experience. Already this year, the company that I work for (a pump manufacturer that gets many of it's parts from China) who does about $20-$30 million a year in business has already said that the tariffs have cost them about $400,000 this year alone. They have had to make up for this in different ways, and it hasn't been good for us. Of course, each set of tariffs affects different industries differently (they just announced more on European goods like Whiskey yesterday), but none of it is good. Apart from that, it creates uncertainty in the markets, which also scares businesses into holding off on new investments, new projects, new hires, etc...

- Although rich and corporations are doing great, the wage gap has continued to increase as it has since around 1980.

- A report by the Federal Reserve recently showed that, although things have improved ever so slightly since the last recession, one in four families have had to skip medical procedures because they can't afford them, even when they are insured. Also, something like 40% of the population still cannot handle a $400 emergency without putting it on a credit card, selling something, or taking some other measure. One in five are still struggling to pay their monthly bills.

I'm not trying to be antagonistic here. I just think that we have been told over and over that the economy is "doing great", shown a graph or two, and we believe it without really questioning it much.

The Christian Support of Donald Trump

Christian Support of Trump

An old friend/acquaintance of mine recently posted something in regards to President Trump and how he as a Christian would stand behind him, basically, so I politely asked him (and anyone else in the thread who wanted to) to explain why he thought that Christians should support a man like Donald Trump.  One person (who shall remain anonymous) responded as follows, and this seemed like a fairly typical response that is probably somewhat representative of the protestant Christian community as a whole:

I wanted to offer a concise response to this, and there was no way that I would be able to in a format that would fit properly in a Facebook response, so I decided to edit it well and post it here on my blog (then link back to the article in the thread).

Let’s get started…

“Pro Israel”

This is a touchy subject, of course, and I suppose I can start off by saying that being Pro Israel isn’t a stance that is uniquely held by Republicans… that much should be obvious and not even in question.  If you want to be President of the United States, you had better have the support of the Israeli lobby (AIPAC - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_lobby_in_the_United_States).  On the other hand, for any public figure to even question or attempt to start a rational discussion about the treatment of the Palestinian people or the involvement of the financial relationships (i.e. weapon sales) between us and Israel is to bring an avalanche of criticism from both sides of the aisle… just look at what happened to Ilhan Omar when she dared to comment on the lobbying and money involved in our politics (she was publicly scorned by even Nancy Pelosi).

Next to String Theory, the Israel-Palestine question is considered to be one of the most complicated  issues of our time.  I won’t pretend to have all of the answers, but there is much about it that seems to just be outright ignored or not talked about by many people in the US – Likely because it isn’t covered in much detail in the media here, or the media is just really one-sided.

Yes, there are many references in the Bible where it speaks of Israel becoming a State (I found this: https://www.openbible.info/topics/israel_becoming_a_state – Although, it seems like most of these quotes are pretty vague interpretations to this effect).  Most of these references talk about ‘all of the Jews returning’, and that certainly hasn’t happened as only a fraction of them actually live in Israel still (many are still in the US, Europe, the Middle East, etc.)… but we can ignore that for now.

I suppose you can look at this in a couple of different ways.  If you are a Christian, you are taught to believe the following:

1. Israel was destined to become a State because it says so in the Bible.  This was prophecy and the prophecy has been proven to be true.

2. Seemingly, the Israeli state has been put there by God and can do no wrong, or if it does do wrong then this is somehow the will of God and you can interpret that as you like.

3. For there to be a second coming of Jesus, the creation of Israel had to come to pass.  This is a major reason why many Christians believe that we are indeed in the “End Times” and that the Rapture will happen soon (the whole subject of the Rapture is something else that we could address).

If you believe the above, then you probably can conveniently ignore the suffering that the Jewish state has inflicted upon the Palestinian people for half a century now.  The Gaza strip has, last I heard, the highest population density of any place on the planet and they are currently living in abhorrent conditions.  The Israeli government seems to find a reason to go to war with them every few years (brought to you by the US tax dollar), resulting in the destruction of what little power/water infrastructure is there and the loss of thousands of lives… Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has actually referred to this as “Mowing the Lawn” (keeping them in check).  Every other nation in the UN apart from the United States has declared this situation to be Apartheid, comparing it to pre-Democratic South Africa.

Another obvious problem with this situation is the fact that this type of treatment of the Palestinians by the Jewish state has resulted in the calls for its outright destruction by neighboring Muslim States and has contributed to the high level of instability in the region, as well as a (arguably) near-universal hatred of the United States… though we’ve done plenty of other things to get to potentially reap said hatred.

I would just have to ask: Doesn’t this seem more like the “Old Testament” God to anyone else?  What happened to “Love thy neighbor as thy brother”?

…Oh, that part is in the New Testament, which Judaism doesn’t recognize… nor do they recognize Jesus as the Messiah... or the book of Revelation, for that matter... something to seriously think about, yes?

Anyway, my main point is that it seems as though most Christians probably take it for granted that they (and any US President) should have unwavering support for the country of Israel, and I think that it may be good to at least take a step back and question their stance on this a little more.

“Pro life of the Unborn”

I don’t know if anyone has noticed, but I’m not a woman, and I can’t claim to completely own this discussion.  Still…

We could talk about that ethics of abortions all day, but whether you are for or against abortion is pretty much completely beside the point.  The fact is that there is no way to completely prevent women from getting abortions in this country or any country, ever (I don’t care how much praying you do, it isn’t going to happen).  If you outlaw it entirely or even criminalize it, women who are desperate enough will seek out and find a (most likely, medically sub-standard) way to get one.  We’ve seen this happen to a more extreme level in places like South America, and it’s pretty frightening.

A second point here would be regarding Planned Parenthood.  Yes, they provide abortions, but that’s something like 1% of the work that they actually do.  Mainly, they provide free or low-cost medical services to women who are without insurance and need them.  More importantly, they hand out birth control like it’s candy (I remember taking trips there with a girlfriend when I was younger, and still know women who go there for that reason today).

It’s pretty safe to say that without an institution like Planned Parenthood around, we would have a much, much higher level of unwanted pregnancies in this country… not to mention women who go without regular breast exams, mammograms, etc… and the more sick people you have in the country, the more it winds up costing all of us in the long run.

To summarize this point, I’d say that being against the idea of abortions is totally fine (as President Trump seems to be these days, though he wasn’t always), but trying to turn that into political practice in the way that it’s been done has probably only made things worse for everyone as a society.

“Pro Conservative Supreme Court Judges”

Trump is most certainly in support of Conservative judges, yes.  If that’s what you want, then great.  I would just have to ask: What, exactly, does the word “Conservative” mean to you in this specific context?  I mean, what boxes have to be checked in order to pass as a “Conservative”?  By all means, correct me if I’m wrong, but:

1.  Pro-Life and will do everything in their power to abolish Roe v. Wade
2.  Pro-Guns (???)
3.  Says that they believe in God and/or go to Church blah blah

…am I forgetting anything?  I could be, but what other boxes are we checking which almost always go along with the ones above?  Let’s see:

4.  For limiting the liability of corporations.  Against the regulation of industry for the good of workers and the environment.
5.  For increasing the influence of big money in our political campaigns
6.  Against gay rights and minority rights
7.  In favor of granting increasing amounts of power to the office of the President (which upsets the very nature of the Constitutional checks and balances that the Founders intended us to have)
8.  Fully support the legality of semi-automatic rifles in the hands of civilians (not that I’m necessarily against this one myself, under the correct circumstances)
9.  For the rights of the Government to collect and store information on its citizens
10. Against Net Neutrality – In other words, they are against the idea of a “Free and Open Internet” where all websites and service providers have equal and free access to the Internet, preventing companies like Comcast from throttling access to certain websites without additional costs, etc.

If this is what you want, then okay (and I think you may need to read into some of these other issues some more), but you can’t say that this isn’t what your getting – I just went back and read up on Brett Kavanaugh’s stances towards all of these issues as a reference, and it pretty much lines up with what I’ve listed above.

Pro Constitution

I’d like to know what you mean by this, exactly.  Looking at his track record, Trump has been about everything *but* upholding the Constitution.

Pro Jobs for Americans

We can get into a deep discussion about economics and the current state of the US economy… But doesn’t everybody say that they’re “pro jobs”, though?  Without going into details right here and now, no matter how much he says that our economy is “doing great”, the truth is that it isn’t and that we’re probably on the verge of another recession to boot (it’s a natural cycle of the capitalist system in its current state).  Yes, unemployment is low (though we can go deeper into that misleading statistic on its own), but saying that the economy is healthy just by looking at the unemployment rate is like having your doctor take your temperature, see that it’s 98.6, then saying that there is nothing at all wrong with you when you’re obviously dying of cancer.

Pro Small and Large Business

While he is certainly Pro Large Business, I’d like to know how any of his policies or the policies of his agencies have helped small businesses.  I can tell you from personal experience that his trade wars have seriously hurt prospects for nearly every industry in the country.  Between that and Brexit, the company that I work for (a pump manufacturer for agricultural and oil systems) is internally reporting massive unexpected costs and loss of business for this year and the upcoming year.

Pro Prosperity for Americans

See my above two points.

Pro Keeping America Secure

Again, everyone will say this, but what does that really mean?  What do you expect that to mean?  Are we “keeping America safe” by supplying Saudi Arabia with bombs and weapons so that they can commit genocide in Yemen, or by failing to do much of anything in regards to gun reform in a time when mass shootings (and just regular ol’ shootings) are more and more commonplace?

Lastly, regarding Trump and his personal life... this is a man who once bragged about being able to “Grab [women] by the p***y” and get away with it.  He spreads hate of foreigners, intolerance of anyone with a different opinion, and fear of the unknown instead of love and compassion.  Beyond that, he doesn't listen to his own advisors... why would he listen to God?

The contradictions between his character and the teachings of Jesus Christ seem to be miles apart, and yet many continue to support him.  Maybe it feels good to have the bully in your corner, and it’s worth overlooking all of his flaws?  I personally don’t get it, but okay.

Oh, and I'll just leave you with this:  The GOP Jesus